Long-term optimization of renewable-based Ethiopia’s power sector development strategies

Abstract

This study analyzes Ethiopia's power sector's energy supply plans and pinpoints opportunities for meeting increased electricity demand while addressing energy security and carbon-neutral economic growth. We use Ethiopia's Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda 2030 Scenario (HERA2030Scen) and the Business as Usual Scenario (BAUScen), which examine the least expensive system development without any change in policy, respectively, to examine national energy policies under two different scenarios (Achieving middle-income country status with a clear pathway to prosperity through newest Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda by 2030). The result shows a 100% renewable energy system to supply national energy by 2050 can be achievable. The energy mix is dominated by hydropower and shifts to solar and wind energy development towards 2050. The result presents the first path towards the realization of carbon-neutral economic growth to achieve national targets of meeting middle-income country status for Ethiopia.